Vhiki pfupiso:
Macro akakosha: Li Keqiang akatungamira Symposium yekudzikisa mutero uye kuderedza mari;Bazi reCommerce nemamwe madhipatimendi makumi maviri nemaviri akapa "chirongwa chemakore mashanu" chekusimudzira kutengeserana kwemumba;Pane kuderera kukuru kwehupfumi uye mitemo yakasimba inobudiswa mukupera kwegore;Muna Zvita, nhamba yemabasa matsva asiri ezvekurima muUnited States aive 199000, yakaderera kubva muna Ndira 2021;Huwandu hwezvichemo zvekutanga zvekushaya basa muUnited States svondo rino hwakakwira kupfuura zvaitarisirwa.
Kutsvaga data: maererano nemari, bhangi repakati rakadzorera 660 bhiriyoni yuan muvhiki;Nhamba yekushanda ye247 blast furnaces yakaongororwa neMysteel yakawedzera ne5.9%, uye kushanda kwemazana e110 ekushambidzira marasha muChina kwakaderera kusvika pasi pe70%;Pakati pevhiki, mitengo yesimbi, marasha emagetsi uye rebar yakasimuka;Mitengo yemhangura ye electrolytic, simende nekongiri yakadonha;Avhareji yemazuva ese kutengesa kwekutengesa kwemotokari dzevatakuri muvhiki yaive 109000, pasi pe9%;BDI yakakwira 3.6%.
Musika wezvemari: mitengo yezvinhu zvikuru zveramangwana yakakwira svondo rino;Pakati pemisika yepasi rose, musika weChina uye US stock market wakaderera zvakanyanya, nepo European stock market yakakwira zvakanyanya;Iyo US dollar index yaive 95.75, yakaderera 0.25%.
1, Macro akakosha
(1) Inopisa nzvimbo yekutarisa
◎ Mutungamiriri Li Keqiang akatungamira hurukuro yekudzikisa mutero nekudzikisa mari.Li Keqiang akati takatarisana nekudzikira kutsva kwehupfumi, tinofanira kuramba tichiita basa rakanaka mu "nhanhatu kugadzikana" uye "nhanhatu vimbiso", uye kuita yakakura yakasanganiswa kuderedzwa kwemitero uye kuderedzwa kwemubhadharo zvinoenderana nezvinodiwa. zvidzidzo zvemusika, kuitira kuti ive nechokwadi chekuti hupfumi hunotanga kugadzikana mukota yekutanga uye kudzikamisa musika mukuru wehupfumi.
◎ Bazi reCommerce nemamwe madhipatimendi makumi maviri nemaviri akapa "chirongwa chemakore mashanu" chekusimudzira kutengeserana kwemukati.Pakazosvika 2025, kutengesa kwese kwekutengesa kwezvinhu zvevatengi zvekugarisana kuchasvika pa50 trillion yuan;Iko kukosha kwakawedzerwa kwekutengesa nekutengesa, pekugara uye kudya kwakasvika kusvika 15.7 trillion yuan;Kutengeswa kwepamhepo kwekutengesa kwakasvika panosvika 17 trillion yuan.Muchirongwa chegumi nemana chemakore mashanu, isu tichawedzera kukwidziridzwa uye kushandiswa kwemotokari nyowani dzesimba uye nekushingairira kuvandudza mota mushure memusika.
◎ musi waNdira 7, People's Daily yakaburitsa chinyorwa nePolicy Research Office yeNational Development and Reform Commission, ichiratidza kuti kukura kwakadzikama kunofanira kuiswa pachinzvimbo chepamusoro uye nzvimbo yehupfumi yakagadzikana uye ine hutano inofanirwa kuchengetedzwa.Tichabatanidza kudzivirira uye kutonga kwedenda nekusimudzira hupfumi uye magariro, kuenderera mberi nekuita hurongwa hwemari inoshanda uye yakangwara mutemo wemari, uye organically kusanganisa kuyambuka cyclical uye counter cyclical macro-control policy.
◎ muna Zvita 2021, Caixin China yekugadzira PMI yakanyora 50,9, yakakwira 1.0 muzana kubva muna Mbudzi, yepamusoro-soro kubva muna Chikunguru 2021. China Caixin service industry PMI muna Zvita yaiva 53.1, inotarisirwa kuva 51.7, ine kukosha kwekare kwe52.1.China's Caixin yakazara PMI muna Zvita yaive makumi mashanu nenhatu, ine kukosha kwekutanga kwe51.2.
Parizvino, kune kuderera kukuru kwekuderera kwehupfumi.Kuti tipindure zvakanaka, mitemo yakabudiswa zvakasimba pakupera kwegore.Kutanga, mutemo wekuwedzera kudiwa kwemumba wakajeka zvishoma nezvishoma.Pasi pekupesvedzera katatu kwekuderera kwekuda, kupa kuvhunduka uye kuderera kwetarisiro, hupfumi hwakatarisana nekudzikira pasi munguva pfupi.Tichifunga kuti kushandiswa ndiyo inonyanya kufambisa simba (kudyara ndiyo yakakosha marginal determinant), zviri pachena kuti mutemo uyu hauzovepo.Kubva pamamiriro ezvinhu aripo, kushandiswa kwemotokari, midziyo yemumba, fenicha uye kushongedza kwemba, izvo zvinoverengera chikamu chikuru, chichava chinotarisisa chekukurudzira.Panyaya yekudyara, zvivakwa zvitsva zvave chinangwa chekuronga.Asi zvakazara, iyo inonyanya kutariswa inoshandiswa kugadzirisa kudzikira kwezvivakwa ichiri yechinyakare zvivakwa
◎ maererano nedata rakaburitswa neDhipatimendi revashandi reUS, nhamba yebasa idzva risiri rekurima muUnited States muna Zvita 2021 yaive 199000, yakaderera pane yaitarisirwa 400000, yakaderera kubva muna Ndira 2021;Huwandu hwekushaikwa kwemabasa hwaive 3.9%, zvirinani pane musika unotarisirwa 4.1%.Vanoongorora vanotenda kuti kunyange hazvo huwandu hwekushaikwa kwemabasa hweUS hwakadonha mwedzi waZvita gore rapfuura, data idzva remabasa harina kunaka.Kushomeka kwevashandi kuri kuramba kuchinetsa mukukura kwemabasa, uye hukama huripo pakati pekupa uye kudiwa mumusika wevashandi weUS huri kuramba huchiwedzera.
◎ kubva muna Ndira 1, nhamba yezvichemo zvekutanga zvekubatsirikana kwehurovha muvhiki yaive 207000, uye zvinotarisirwa kuti 195000. Kunyangwe nhamba yezvichemo zvekutanga zvemabhenefiti ekushaya basa yakawedzera kana ichienzaniswa nesvondo rapfuura, yakamira pedyo ne50- gore rakaderera mumavhiki apfuura, nekuda kwekuti kambani iri kuchengeta vashandi vayo varipo pasi pemamiriro ezvinhu ekushomeka kwevashandi uye kusiya basa.Nekudaro, sezvo zvikoro nemabhizinesi zvakatanga kuvharwa, kupararira kweOmicron kwakamutsa zvakare kunetseka kwevanhu nezvehupfumi.
(2) Pfupiso yenhau dzakakosha
◎ Mutungamiriri Li Keqiang akatungamira musangano mukuru weState Council kutumira matanho ekuita zvizere manejimendi enyaya dzemarezenisi ekutonga, kuenzanisa kushanda kwesimba uye kubatsira mabhizinesi nevanhu zvakanyanya.Tichaisa manejimendi akasarudzika ebhizinesi kiredhiti njodzi uye kusimudzira kutarisisa kwakanaka uye kunoshanda.
◎ iye Lifeng, director weNational Development and Reform Commission, akanyora kuti isu tinofanirwa kuita ratidziro yehurongwa hwekuwedzera kudiwa kwemba uye nekuita chirongwa chegumi nemana chirongwa chemakore mashanu, kukurumidza kuburitswa uye kushandiswa kwezvisungo zvakakosha zvehurumende dzenzvimbo. , uye zvine mwero kufambisira mberi kwekudyara kwezvivakwa.
◎ maererano nedata rebhanga guru renyika, muna Zvita 2021, bhanga guru repakati rakaita zvekukweretesa zvepakati-kati kumasangano emari, anosvika mazana mashanu emabhiriyoni emayuan, aine nguva yegore rimwe uye mubereko we2.95%.Chiyero chezvikwereti zvepakati-refu pakupera kwenguva iyi yaive 4550 bhiriyoni yuan.
◎ hofisi yeState Council yakadhinda nekugovera hurongwa hwese hwemutyairi wekugadzirisa kwakazara kwekugovewa kwakanangana nemusika kwezvinhu, izvo zvinobvumira shanduko yechinangwa cheiyo stock yekuvaka ivhu rekuvaka zvinoenderana nehurongwa huchatengeswa mumusika pamusika. chirevo chekuzvidira muripo maererano nemutemo.Pakazosvika 2023, edza kuwana budiriro yakakosha mumakongiri akakosha ekugovewa kwakatarisana nemusika kwezvinhu zvakaita sevhu, vashandi, capital uye tekinoroji.
◎ musi waNdira 1, 2022, RCEP yakatanga kushanda, uye nyika gumi, kusanganisira China, dzakatanga kuzadzisa zvisungo zvadzo zviri pamutemo, zvichiratidza kutanga kwenzvimbo huru yekutengeserana yemahara uye kutanga kwakanaka kwehupfumi hweChina.Pakati padzo, China neJapan dzakagadzira hukama hwekudyidzana kwekutengeserana kwemahara kekutanga, dzakasvika pachibvumirano chemitero yekudyidzana, uye dzakawana budiriro yenhoroondo.
◎ CITIC Securities yakaita tarisiro gumi yemutemo wekukura kwakasimba, vachiti hafu yekutanga ya2022 ichave nguva yehwindo yekudzikisa mubereko.Zvinotarisirwa kuti mibairo yenguva pfupi, yepakati uye yenguva refu yekubhadhara mari ichaderedzwa.Iyo 7-zuva reverse rekutenga mubereko, 1-gore MLF mubereko, 1-gore uye 5-gore LPR mubereko uchaderedzwa ne5 BP panguva imwe chete, kusvika 2.15% / 2.90% / 3.75% / 4.60% zvichiteerana. , zvinobudirira kuderedza mari yekubhadhara mari yehupfumi chaihwo.
◎ tichitarisira kusimudzirwa kwehupfumi muna 2022, vakuru vezvehupfumi vemasangano makumi matatu nemanomwe edzimba vanowanzo tenda kuti pane zvinhu zvitatu zvinokurudzira kusimudzira hupfumi hwenyika: chekutanga, kuisa mari mukuvaka zvivakwa kunotarisirwa kudzoka;Chechipiri, mari yekugadzira inotarisirwa kuramba ichiwedzera;Chechitatu, kushandiswa kunotarisirwa kuramba kuchikwira.
◎ Chirevo chezvehupfumi cheChina chegore ra2022 chakaburitswa nguva pfupi yapfuura neakawanda emasangano anopihwa mari nekunze anotenda kuti kushandiswa kweChina kuchapora zvishoma nezvishoma uye kutengesa kunze kwenyika kucharamba kwakagadzikana.Mumamiriro ezvinhu etarisiro pamusoro pehupfumi hweChina, masangano anowana mari kune dzimwe nyika anoenderera mberi nekugadzirisa midziyo yeRMB, anotenda kuti kuenderera mberi kwekuvhura kweChina kunogona kuramba kuchikwezva mari yekunze, uye kune mikana yekudyara mumusika weChina.
◎ Basa reADP muUnited States rakawedzera ne807000 muna December, kuwedzera kukuru kubva muna May 2021. Inofungidzirwa kuwedzera ne400000, zvichienzaniswa nehuwandu hwekare hwe534000. mamiriyoni munaNovember.
◎ muna Zvita 2021, iyo US ism yekugadzira PMI yakakwira kusvika pa58.7, yakaderera kubva muna Ndira gore rapfuura, uye yakaderera pane tarisiro yenyanzvi dzehupfumi, nehuwandu hwekare hwe61.1.Sub zviratidzo zvinoratidza kuti kudiwa kwakagadzikana, asi nguva yekuendesa uye zviratidzo zvemitengo zvakaderera.
◎ maererano nedata reDhipatimendi reVashandi reUS, muna Mbudzi 2021, nhamba yevakasiya basa muUnited States yakasvika rekodhi 4.5 miriyoni, uye huwandu hwemabasa hwakadzikira kubva pamamirioni gumi nerimwe akadzokororwa muna Gumiguru kusvika pamamirioni gumi nemazana matanhatu, zvichiri yakakwirira zvikuru kupfuura kukosha kwedenda risati rasvika.
◎ musi waNdira 4 nguva yeko, komiti yePolish monetary policy yakazivisa danho rayo rekuwedzera mubereko mukuru weCentral Bank yePoland ne50 basis points kusvika 2.25%, ichatanga kushanda musi wa5 Ndira. muPoland mumwedzi mina, uye bhanga guru rePoland rave bhanga renyika rekutanga kuzivisa kuwedzera kwemhindu muna 2022.
◎ German Federal Bureau of Statistics: mwero wepagore weinflation muGermany muna 2021 wakakwira kusvika pa3.1%, uchisvika padanho repamusoro kubvira 1993.
2, Kutsvaga data
(1) Capital side
(2) Indasitiri data
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3. Muchidimbu misika yemari
Panyaya yeramangwana rezvigadzirwa, mitengo yezvinhu zvikuru zvemangwana yakakwira musvondo iroro, iyo mafuta asina kuchena akakwira zvakanyanya, kusvika pa4.62%.Panyaya yemisika yepasi rose, musika weChina uye masheya eUS akadonha, negem index ichidonha zvakanyanya, ichisvika 6.8%.Mumusika wekutsinhanisa kune dzimwe nyika, iyo US dollar index yakavharwa pa95,75, pasi 0.25%.
4, data yakakosha yevhiki rinouya
(1) China ichaburitsa December PPI uye CPI data
Nguva: Chitatu (1 / 12)
Maonero: maererano nehurongwa hwebasa reNational Bureau of statistics, data yeCPI nePPI yaDecember 2021 ichabudiswa musi waJanuary 12. Nyanzvi dzinofanotaura kuti nekuda kwekuita kwechigadziko uye mhedzisiro yemutemo wepamba wekuvimbisa kupa uye kudzikamisa mutengo, kukura kwegore-pagore kweCPI kunogona kudonha zvishoma kusvika pa2% muna Zvita 2021, gore-pa-gore kukura kwePPI kunogona kudonha zvishoma kusvika 11%, uye GDP yepagore yekukura mwero inotarisirwa kudarika 8%.Uye zvakare, kukura kweGDP mukota yekutanga ye2022 inotarisirwa kusvika kupfuura 5.3%.
(2) Rondedzero yedata rakakosha svondo rinouya
Nguva yekutumira: Jan-10-2022